What will be with country if it will be disconnected from the Internet

Russian possibility of the disconnecting from global Internet again appear in the news –  “Russia could disconnect itself from global Internet during a crisis, Putin adviser says”. What is the possible scenarios in our time for disconnect country from Internet? How much it costs and what will be after this with country?

This questions we can analyze for assess the impact. First we must talk about possible scenarios for this disconnection. There are three scenarios:

– country disconnect itself from global Internet;
– another countries disconnects some country from Internet;
– someone else disconnect country from Internet with hacker’s attack.

First choice can be realized in country with centralized management of Internet Service Providers (ISP). This is Russia has. Then with Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS protocol) traffic in controlled autonomous systems (AS) can be tagged on controlled ISP’s, and routing for non-tagged traffic with BGP disabled in this systems. So non-tagged traffic can be routed on high levels or trunked with no access to Internet clients and they will haven’t access to other IP addresses than in internal AS. How much it costs? Not so many for Russia.

Second scenario can be realized with the same schema with source traffic detection on the Root DNS servers. There are some security fixes than with traffic delay from controlled country. It enables some protection from hacker’s attack from this country like of the Russian hacker’s on USA election process at the end of 2016. How much it costs? Not so much for the rest of the world.

Third scenario is some new from the out time. There were no such cases but it is possible. How much it costs? No one knows.

So what will be with country when it will be disconnected from the global Internet? This country will deteriorate in economic development, technology, science. Main minus in the overall – minus information change with the rest of the world, it will still grow faster. We can see it on many evolution examples.